Analyzing the Loss

 Published December 13, 2012 in the Lynchburg Ledger 

In my last column, I concluded that America was now under the judgment of God because as a nation, we have turned our backs on Him.  It has taken over 50 years, but it appears that God has finally abandoned us to our own vices.

Now that over a month has passed since the election, we now have a better understanding how Romney lost and Obama won.  There is no one thing we can point to; it is a series of events and facts that determined the outcome. 

One of the things I love to do is analyze election results and see if I can spot causes and effects as well as trends.  In this election, there were many causes with one dismal effect, and the trend is indeed troubling.

The first thing to note is that the white male vote failed to show up, according to Dick Morris.  While the black vote was up by 300,000 and the Latino vote was up by 1.7 million over 2008, the white male vote was down by seven million – 91.6 million compared to 98.6 million in 2008. 

The next thing I noted was switch in the evangelical vote.  In 2008, McCain won 88 percent of the evangelical vote to Obama’s 11 percent.  In 2012, Romney received only 81 percent of the evangelical vote while Obama’s vote increased to 17 percent.

Roman Catholics went for Obama by 57 to 42 percent while Protestants went for Romney by the exact same percentage, 57 to 42 percent, according to a Barna Group survey, almost identical to four years ago.

So what were the major factors that changed the evangelical vote and caused seven million white males to stay home on Election Day?

One major factor was the Romney campaign itself.  The political consultants employed by the Romney campaign had financial ties directly to companies they hired.

Romney consultant Stephen Meyers owns SCM Associates, Inc., which billed the campaign $48 million for direct mail. 

Romney consultant Rich Beeson is a partner in FLS Connect, which billed the campaign $36 million for telemarketing and “robocalls.”

The Romney campaign spent $130 million on direct mail up through October 17^th (last report before the election) as opposed to the Obama campaign’s $80 million.  Analysis shows that direct mail is the least effective means of contacting the voters.

The Romney campaign failed to support building a strong grassroots effort in places where it was needed, such as Northern Virginia.  In the Lynchburg area, there was a grassroots effort mounted but it was not strongly supported.

I stopped by the Republican headquarters at Candler’s Station one day to get some Romney-Ryan signs for folks at my church and was told I could have only one sign. 

Besides structure, the Romney campaign and the supporting super PACs made a fundamental flaw in judgment when they failed to mount a vigorous counterattack to the Obama ads, which were aimed at discrediting not just Romney but the entire capitalistic system.

During primary season, the Romney PACs had no hesitation in attacking opponents like Gingrich and Santorum but in the general election they were afraid to attack Obama and counter his lies.  They were afraid the media would call them racists. 

Obama kept attacking Romney’s former company, Bain Capital, which undermined Romney's standing among white voters and led directly to their diminished turnout, according to Morris.  They failed to understand that Bain posed a mortal threat to the credibility of their candidate.

The Obama campaign also planted the thoughts in the minds of unmarried women that Romney was going to take away their birth control, which the Romney campaign never responded to. 

The difference between the two campaigns was that Obama relied on emotion to connect with voters, and the Romney campaign, stuck in the past, countered with logic and facts.  Any time one pits emotion against logic in a debate, emotion wins every time.  The Romney campaign never once tried to connect emotionally to the voters.

Another factor that needs to be acknowledged is the changing demographics of America, especially among young people.

According to a very recent study by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, twenty percent of adults in America now have no religious affiliation and they overwhelmingly vote Democrat. Exit polling on Election Day indicated that ‘religiously unaffiliated” voters constituted 12 percent of the voters.

The study notes, “In the last five years alone, the unaffiliated have increased from just over 15% to just under 20% of all U.S. adults. Their ranks now include more than 13 million self-described atheists and agnostics (nearly 6% of the U.S. public), as well as nearly 33 million people who say they have no particular religious affiliation (14%).”

In the last five years, the unaffiliated have risen from 17% to 24% of all registered voters who are Democrats or lean Democratic.  72 percent of them support abortion and 73 percent support homosexual marriage.

So, when you combine an inept and incestuous Romney campaign with a flawed campaign philosophy and a rapidly changing demographic of those under 30 with no religious affiliation, you have an Obama victory and a Romney defeat.

The Republican Party is now tearing itself apart.  Speaker Boehner has purging “Tea Party” Republicans from key committees and they are banding together to oppose Boehner’s re-election as House Speaker. 

The political climate is not going to improve for the Republicans until the U.S. hits “rock bottom.”  It is not until a drunk or a drug addict hits rock bottom that they can begin the process of rehabilitation.  The U.S. is currently addicted to liberalism and the “free stuff” that comes with it. 

I agree with Sen. Rand Paul who suggests that Republicans vote “present” in the “fiscal cliff” issue, and let the Democrats do what they intend to do, raise taxes on the employers who are the only hope rebuilding our economy. 

That way, it will be impossible to blame Republicans (even though the media will try) for the economic disaster that will follow as unemployment rates rise along with the costs of life essentials such as energy and food.

As far as the “moral cliff,” is concerned, it appears we went over that some time ago.  The only hope there is for a spiritual revival similar to the First and Second Great Awakenings of the 1700’s and 1800’s.