Egypt Situation Critical for Global Economy

Published February 4, 2011 in the Lynchburg Ledger

Barack Obama, often compared to Jimmy Carter, may be about to make the same mistake Carter did.  Carter lost Iran to Islamic fundamentalists and Obama may about to do the same with Egypt.

Hosni Mubarak (Muhammad Hosni Sayyid Mubarak) is currently the fourth president of the Arab Republic of Egypt.  He was appointed Vice President in 1975, and assumed the Presidency on October 14, 1981, following the assassination of President Anwar El-Sadat.

However, Egypt is far from a republic and Mubarak is far from a popularly elected president.  Mubarak is a dictator, but he is our dictator.  He has been a stabilizing force in the Middle East for years.

Mubarak is a secular Muslim, meaning he does not seek to impose Islam on the world as does Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  Mubarak has been a moderating influence in the Middle East for many years continuing the policies of Anwar El-Sadat, who was assassinated by Islamic fundamentalists after agreeing to a peace treaty with Israel.

In 1979, Mohammad Rezā Shāh Pahlavi, Shah of Iran, was overthrown by Islamic fundamentalists.  The Carter administration was taken by surprise by the move and was paralyzed.  They could have given support to the Shah and worked towards reform with a peaceful transition of power, but Carter failed to act.

As a result, the U.S. was perceived to be weak and indecisive which led to the Iran hostage crisis.  Sixty-six Americans were taken captive when Iranian fundamentalists seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran on Nov. 4, 1979, including three who were at the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Six more Americans escaped and of the 66, who were taken hostage, 13 were released on Nov. 19 and 20, 1979; one was released on July 11, 1980, and the remaining 52 were held captives for 444 days.

The Carter administration failed to negotiate a release of the hostages, so they attempted a rescue operation, Operation Eagle Claw, on April 24, 1980, which was a disaster.  It resulted in the destruction of two helicopters and the deaths of eight American servicemen and one Iranian civilian.

It was not until Ronald Reagan was inaugurated President on January 20, 1981 that the hostages were released.  The Islamic militants didn’t fear Carter, but they surely feared Reagan.

I doubt there is anyone in the Islamic world that fears Barack Obama.  His Cairo speech where he apologized for our nation gave aid and comfort to the Islamic terrorists who have vowed to kill us.  It is likely that Obama’s perceived weakness is a contributing factor in the current Egyptian unrest. 

Dictators are all alike; over time, they become more and more dictatorial.  In this respect, Mubarak was following in the footsteps of the Shah.  The Shah and Mubarak are seen as close allies of the U.S., something radical Islam despises.

 

The Shah was also accused of oppression, brutality, corruption, and extravagance, some of the same accusations leveled at Mubarak.  With a high unemployment rate, particularly among the literate population, Mubarak is being blamed.

Although he has fired his cabinet, appointed Omar Suleiman, his intelligence chief and confidant as vice-president and appointed e new cabinet, the protesters have not been appeased.

Standing in the wings just waiting for a right opportunity is the radical organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, which was founded in 1928 to promote implementing of traditional Islamic sharia law.  Today it is illegal but tolerated as Egypt's most popular and powerful non-governmental organization.

The fear is that if the Mubarak government should collapse and the military turn against him, a vacuum would be created and be quickly filled by the Muslim Brotherhood.  Nobel Peace laureate and Muslim Brotherhood sympathizer Mohamed ElBaradei, who is also the former head of the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), appears to be positioning himself to succeed Mubarak.  He had been under house arrest but made his first public appearance last Sunday encouraging the demonstrators.

ElBaradei is considered to be close to Iran and if he should succeed to the presidency of Egypt, we would have the two most populous Islamic nations in the Middle East ruled by Islamic fundamentalists.  That would be bad news for Israel, the U.S. and the entire world.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton claims the U.S. desires an “orderly transition to democracy” in Egypt.  That would be the best solution but the probability is low as the Muslim Brotherhood surely knows how to exploit the unrest for their advantage.

Mubarak, who was grooming his son Gamal Mubarak to be his successor, announced he would not run again for president but would continue to govern until the next election this fall.  This is not likely to satisfy many of the demonstrators and certainly not the Muslim Brotherhood. 

Mubarak finally realized the gig was up, but he is clinging to power for a little while longer.  Rather, he should transfer power to his newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman until the regularly scheduled Egyptian elections this fall.  This will allow for an orderly transition of power and may just keep the Muslim Brotherhood from turning Egypt into an Islamic state.

If Mubarak is forced out prior to the elections, Egypt will likely end up in the hands of Islamic extremists.  Some speculate that is exactly what Obama wants as he has been playing both sides since the unrest began.

 

Iraq was able to hold successful elections under even more extreme conditions.  The fledgling Iraqi government is still learning how to function in a democratic manner and I suspect Egypt will undergo similar growing pains.

If the worst should happen and Egypt falls into the hands of radical Islam, they will control the Suez Canal and disrupt the world economy.  Gasoline will climb back over $4 a gallon and any hope for an economic recovery here at home will be lost.  Obama will have lost Egypt just as Carter lost Iran.