Census Results Helps Nationally, Hurts Locally

Published February 11, 2011 in The Lynchburg Ledger 

It was about a year ago that the 2010 Census forms began showing up in our mail boxes.  Many of us were skeptical of the Obama Administration and answered only the questions required by the Constitution.  Other questions, such as the one about the home having a mortgage, were left unanswered.  As a result, I did have a census worker show up at my house.  I still refused to answer the questions I had left blank and have yet to be locked up.

Now, a year later, the data has been tabulated.  Political boundaries, from congressional districts to local precincts are about to be redrawn. 

The population of the U.S. was found to be 308,745,538, an increase of 9.7 percent over the 2000 census.   Apportionment is the process of dividing the 435 memberships, or seats, in the House of Representatives among the 50 states based on the population figures collected during the census.
When I do the calculation, I come up with 709,760 people per district.  The Census Bureau comes up with a slightly larger number of 710,767 people per district.  Either they are using a correction factor or the Obama administration is cooking the numbers.
When we look at it on a state-by-state basis, we see something very interesting.  We see a migration from typically blue states to typically red states.  This means that Democrat-dominated states lost House seats and Republican-dominated states gained them.  A total of 12 seats will be transferred
Not only are House seats in play, but so are electoral seats.  Each House seat represents one vote in the Electoral College.
States losing House seats are:

·        Illinois (-1)

·        Iowa (-1)

·        Louisiana (-1)

·        Massachusetts (-1)

·        Michigan (-1)

·        Missouri (-1)

·        New Jersey (-1)

·        New York (-2)

·        Ohio (-2)

·        Pennsylvania (-1)

States gaining House seats are:

·        Arizona (+1)

·        Florida (+2)

·        Georgia (+1)

·        Nevada (+1)

·        South Carolina (+1)

·        Texas (+4)

·        Utah (+1)

·        Washington (+1)

Although Virginia gained 13 percent in population over the past decade to 8,001,024, it was not enough to warrant another House district.  The average population of a Virginia House district will be 730,703, up from 645,518 a decade ago.  Virginia last gained a House seat in 1990.
The fastest growing region of the Virginia continues to be Northern Virginia where three counties accounted for 40 percent of the population increase.  Fairfax County grew 11.5 percent to 1.08 million, Prince William County grew 43.2 percent to 402,000 and Loudoun County grew a staggering 84.1 percent to 312,311.
Over the years, Fairfax County has led the growth, but now just about all the buildable land in the county has been developed. 
Locally, Campbell County saw a 7.4 percent growth, and I contributed to that statistic.  The City of Lynchburg saw a 15.8 percent growth rate, much of which I suspect is due to Liberty University.
Bedford County saw a 13.8 percent growth, Appomattox County a 9.3 percent growth rate and Amherst County a 1.4 percent increase.
Henry County lost 6.1 percent of its population, Halifax County lost 3 percent, Grayson County lost 13.3 percent, and Smyth County lost 2.6 percent. 
Franklin County gained 18.8 percent and was the fastest growing county in the region.
With this population shift, we can expect to lose at least one, possibly two or three, House of Delegate seats and at least one Senate seat.  The geographic area of the 5^th Congressional District, already the biggest district geographically, will expand even more to pick up population.  Two districts in Northern Virginia (10^th and 11^th) will shrink geographically.  The 8^th District (Arlington and Alexandria) will expand slightly because these Democrat-controlled areas experienced the slowest rate of growth
The end result will be a shift of political power in the state from more conservative areas of the state to traditionally more liberal areas of the state.  This will make it even more difficult for Republicans to win the two state Senate seats they would need to win control of the Senate, which is currently split 22 to 18.  The Republican Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling would be the tie breaker.
So the bottom line is, nationally conservatives will benefit from the results of the census, but locally, it may hurt.  Political power in the state is continuing to flow from traditionally conservative rural to traditionally liberal urban areas.
Now the work begins, redrawing all the boundary lines, from congressional districts to state House and Senate districts to county supervisor districts and city ward districts, right down to the precincts themselves.  Since 2011 is an election year with the Virginia House and Senate up for election as well as many county positions, the new district lines will become most important.
In 1991, with Democrats in full control of Virginia, they gerrymandered the districts to favor Democrats.  However, in the end, it backfired.  They redistricted freshman Congressman George Allen out of his district so Allen ran for governor beating heavily favored Mary Sue Terry. 
This year, with the General Assembly split between parties and a Republican in the Governor’s mansion, we can expect to see a fair and bi-partisan redistricting.