Friday, February 18, 2011

Webb Drops Out After Allen Announces Run

Published February 18, 2011 in The Lynchburg Ledger


On January 24th, former Governor and Senator George Allen announced that he was a candidate to regain the Senate seat he lost to Jim Webb in 2006.  In a video announcement he said, “Today, I’m announcing my candidacy for the U.S. Senate.  You know me as someone willing to fight for the people of Virginia, and I’d like the responsibility to fight for you again. Hire me on for six years, and I pledge to work hard restoring freedom, personal responsibility and opportunity for all.”

George Allen lost his seat in 2006 to Jim Webb, who is actually now the senior Senator from Virginia.  In a close race, Webb won by a mere 9,329 votes thanks to a lopsided vote in Northern Virginia.  While Allen took most of the state, he lost Northern Virginia by a whopping 103,430 votes after The Washington Post set out to destroy him as he was instrumental in defeating Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle two years earlier.

It was the Post which hammered Allen mercilessly over his “Macaca” statement.  Since then, the circulation of the Post has dropped significantly and their influence and diminished accordingly.  However, they still influence the Northern Virginia voters. 
Just over two weeks after the Allen announcement, Jim Webb made an announcement of his own.  He announced on February 9th he would not seek re-election.  In his statement, Webb said, “After much thought and consideration, I have decided to return to the private sector, where I have spent most of my professional life, and will not seek re-election in 2012,”

After the 2009 election when Bob McDonnell easily beat Democrat Creigh Deeds and the 2010 election seeing three of Virginia’s Congressmen defeated, he obviously saw the handwriting on the wall.

The Washington Times reported, “Mr. Webb’s announcement was not entirely unexpected, given that the decorated Marine and former Navy secretary has never been fond of the glad-handing and fundraising involved in running a statewide campaign, and because he supported some of his party’s more controversial policies, which haunted them in the 2010 election.”

The Washington Post’s Lee Hockstader wrote “Jim Webb's announcement that he's quitting the Senate after his terms finished in 2012 confirms his refreshing reputation as a maverick unwed to the perks of office.”

Hockstader went on to say about George Allen, “ Then there's George Allen, whom Webb beat -- strike that -- who beat himself in his race for reelection to the Senate in 2006. Allen will never live down his Macaca notoriety; I'll lay bets that it will feature in the lead -- probably the headline -- of most of his obituaries. But he retains some good will among Republicans who prefer to remember him as a conservative governor who notched some achievements in office than as a do-nothing senator whose swagger, arrogance and, many believe, oblique racism contributed to his party's loss of control of the U.S. Senate.”

The Post is too modest, they need to take the full credit for Allen’s defeat.

Now comes the question of who the Democrat nominee will be.  Former Governor Tim Kaine would be the logical choice but so far, no announcement.  He was one of the first governors in 2008 to support Obama and that will now hang as a millstone around his neck now that the bloom is off the Obama presidency.

Also being mentioned is recently defeated Congressman Tom Perriello. In fact, there are a total of three recently unemployed Democrat congressmen from Virginia who might want to run.

We will let the Democrats hash that one out and there is still plenty of time for the volatile political climate to change.

George Allen will not be unopposed.  Already announced is Richmond Tea Party candidate Jamie Radke.  In her web site, she states, “I am the mother of three young children, and my first priority is both to protect them today and protect their future. I truly worry about what the next five years holds for our children and the nation, given this climate of reckless and immoral spending. Someone must step into the gap so that our children and America are not crushed in the coming years under the weight of insurmountable debt and debilitating taxes.

“As a US Senator uncorrupted by inside-the-Beltway politics, I will put our nation’s future first and serve the interests of our families and children, rather than perpetuating the perverse system created by big-government politicians.”

George Allen has his work cut out for him and I’m sure he is up to the task.  He will have a lot of minds to change.  He was not supported by the extreme conservative wing when he was in office.  They took note that his chief of staff, Jay Timmons, was a homosexual.  George Allen shipped him over to the National Republican Senatorial Committee where he worked in opposition to homosexual marriage.  He was outed by the DC homosexual publication, The Washington Blade.

While it was troubling for me that a political savvy homosexual had the confidence of Allen (I had actually met Timmons at an Independence Day function), it was not a deal-breaker for me as it was for others.

As a result, we ended up with Webb who voted for the Obama agenda, right down to repealing “Don’t Ask – Don’t Tell,” something George Allen would never had done.

If there is one lesson I have learned in politics over these past 25 years, is that when you take an all or nothing position, you end up with nothing every time.

Census Results Helps Nationally, Hurts Locally

Published February 11, 2011 in The Lynchburg Ledger 


It was about a year ago that the 2010 Census forms began showing up in our mail boxes.  Many of us were skeptical of the Obama Administration and answered only the questions required by the Constitution.  Other questions, such as the one about the home having a mortgage, were left unanswered.  As a result, I did have a census worker show up at my house.  I still refused to answer the questions I had left blank and have yet to be locked up.

Now, a year later, the data has been tabulated.  Political boundaries, from congressional districts to local precincts are about to be redrawn. 
The population of the U.S. was found to be 308,745,538, an increase of 9.7 percent over the 2000 census.   Apportionment is the process of dividing the 435 memberships, or seats, in the House of Representatives among the 50 states based on the population figures collected during the census.
When I do the calculation, I come up with 709,760 people per district.  The Census Bureau comes up with a slightly larger number of 710,767 people per district.  Either they are using a correction factor or the Obama administration is cooking the numbers.
When we look at it on a state-by-state basis, we see something very interesting.  We see a migration from typically blue states to typically red states.  This means that Democrat-dominated states lost House seats and Republican-dominated states gained them.  A total of 12 seats will be transferred
Not only are House seats in play, but so are electoral seats.  Each House seat represents one vote in the Electoral College.
States losing House seats are:
·        Illinois (-1)
·        Iowa (-1)
·        Louisiana (-1)
·        Massachusetts (-1)
·        Michigan (-1)
·        Missouri (-1)
·        New Jersey (-1)
·        New York (-2)
·        Ohio (-2)
·        Pennsylvania (-1)
States gaining House seats are:
·        Arizona (+1)
·        Florida (+2)
·        Georgia (+1)
·        Nevada (+1)
·        South Carolina (+1)
·        Texas (+4)
·        Utah (+1)
·        Washington (+1)
Although Virginia gained 13 percent in population over the past decade to 8,001,024, it was not enough to warrant another House district.  The average population of a Virginia House district will be 730,703, up from 645,518 a decade ago.  Virginia last gained a House seat in 1990.
The fastest growing region of the Virginia continues to be Northern Virginia where three counties accounted for 40 percent of the population increase.  Fairfax County grew 11.5 percent to 1.08 million, Prince William County grew 43.2 percent to 402,000 and Loudoun County grew a staggering 84.1 percent to 312,311.
Over the years, Fairfax County has led the growth, but now just about all the buildable land in the county has been developed. 
Locally, Campbell County saw a 7.4 percent growth, and I contributed to that statistic.  The City of Lynchburg saw a 15.8 percent growth rate, much of which I suspect is due to Liberty University.
Bedford County saw a 13.8 percent growth, Appomattox County a 9.3 percent growth rate and Amherst County a 1.4 percent increase.
Henry County lost 6.1 percent of its population, Halifax County lost 3 percent, Grayson County lost 13.3 percent, and Smyth County lost 2.6 percent. 
Franklin County gained 18.8 percent and was the fastest growing county in the region.
With this population shift, we can expect to lose at least one, possibly two or three, House of Delegate seats and at least one Senate seat.  The geographic area of the 5th Congressional District, already the biggest district geographically, will expand even more to pick up population.  Two districts in Northern Virginia (10th and 11th) will shrink geographically.  The 8th District (Arlington and Alexandria) will expand slightly because these Democrat-controlled areas experienced the slowest rate of growth
The end result will be a shift of political power in the state from more conservative areas of the state to traditionally more liberal areas of the state.  This will make it even more difficult for Republicans to win the two state Senate seats they would need to win control of the Senate, which is currently split 22 to 18.  The Republican Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling would be the tie breaker.
So the bottom line is, nationally conservatives will benefit from the results of the census, but locally, it may hurt.  Political power in the state is continuing to flow from traditionally conservative rural to traditionally liberal urban areas.
Now the work begins, redrawing all the boundary lines, from congressional districts to state House and Senate districts to county supervisor districts and city ward districts, right down to the precincts themselves.  Since 2011 is an election year with the Virginia House and Senate up for election as well as many county positions, the new district lines will become most important.
In 1991, with Democrats in full control of Virginia, they gerrymandered the districts to favor Democrats.  However, in the end, it backfired.  They redistricted freshman Congressman George Allen out of his district so Allen ran for governor beating heavily favored Mary Sue Terry. 
This year, with the General Assembly split between parties and a Republican in the Governor’s mansion, we can expect to see a fair and bi-partisan redistricting.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Egypt Situation Critical for Global Economy

Published February 4, 2011 in the Lynchburg Ledger

Barack Obama, often compared to Jimmy Carter, may be about to make the same mistake Carter did.  Carter lost Iran to Islamic fundamentalists and Obama may about to do the same with Egypt.

Hosni Mubarak (Muhammad Hosni Sayyid Mubarak) is currently the fourth president of the Arab Republic of Egypt.  He was appointed Vice President in 1975, and assumed the Presidency on October 14, 1981, following the assassination of President Anwar El-Sadat.

However, Egypt is far from a republic and Mubarak is far from a popularly elected president.  Mubarak is a dictator, but he is our dictator.  He has been a stabilizing force in the Middle East for years.

Mubarak is a secular Muslim, meaning he does not seek to impose Islam on the world as does Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  Mubarak has been a moderating influence in the Middle East for many years continuing the policies of Anwar El-Sadat, who was assassinated by Islamic fundamentalists after agreeing to a peace treaty with Israel.

In 1979, Mohammad Rezā Shāh Pahlavi, Shah of Iran, was overthrown by Islamic fundamentalists.  The Carter administration was taken by surprise by the move and was paralyzed.  They could have given support to the Shah and worked towards reform with a peaceful transition of power, but Carter failed to act.

As a result, the U.S. was perceived to be weak and indecisive which led to the Iran hostage crisis.  Sixty-six Americans were taken captive when Iranian fundamentalists seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran on Nov. 4, 1979, including three who were at the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Six more Americans escaped and of the 66, who were taken hostage, 13 were released on Nov. 19 and 20, 1979; one was released on July 11, 1980, and the remaining 52 were held captives for 444 days.

The Carter administration failed to negotiate a release of the hostages, so they attempted a rescue operation, Operation Eagle Claw, on April 24, 1980, which was a disaster.  It resulted in the destruction of two helicopters and the deaths of eight American servicemen and one Iranian civilian.

It was not until Ronald Reagan was inaugurated President on January 20, 1981 that the hostages were released.  The Islamic militants didn’t fear Carter, but they surely feared Reagan.

I doubt there is anyone in the Islamic world that fears Barack Obama.  His Cairo speech where he apologized for our nation gave aid and comfort to the Islamic terrorists who have vowed to kill us.  It is likely that Obama’s perceived weakness is a contributing factor in the current Egyptian unrest. 

Dictators are all alike; over time, they become more and more dictatorial.  In this respect, Mubarak was following in the footsteps of the Shah.  The Shah and Mubarak are seen as close allies of the U.S., something radical Islam despises.
 
The Shah was also accused of oppression, brutality, corruption, and extravagance, some of the same accusations leveled at Mubarak.  With a high unemployment rate, particularly among the literate population, Mubarak is being blamed.

Although he has fired his cabinet, appointed Omar Suleiman, his intelligence chief and confidant as vice-president and appointed e new cabinet, the protesters have not been appeased.

Standing in the wings just waiting for a right opportunity is the radical organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, which was founded in 1928 to promote implementing of traditional Islamic sharia law.  Today it is illegal but tolerated as Egypt's most popular and powerful non-governmental organization.

The fear is that if the Mubarak government should collapse and the military turn against him, a vacuum would be created and be quickly filled by the Muslim Brotherhood.  Nobel Peace laureate and Muslim Brotherhood sympathizer Mohamed ElBaradei, who is also the former head of the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), appears to be positioning himself to succeed Mubarak.  He had been under house arrest but made his first public appearance last Sunday encouraging the demonstrators.

ElBaradei is considered to be close to Iran and if he should succeed to the presidency of Egypt, we would have the two most populous Islamic nations in the Middle East ruled by Islamic fundamentalists.  That would be bad news for Israel, the U.S. and the entire world.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton claims the U.S. desires an “orderly transition to democracy” in Egypt.  That would be the best solution but the probability is low as the Muslim Brotherhood surely knows how to exploit the unrest for their advantage.

Mubarak, who was grooming his son Gamal Mubarak to be his successor, announced he would not run again for president but would continue to govern until the next election this fall.  This is not likely to satisfy many of the demonstrators and certainly not the Muslim Brotherhood. 

Mubarak finally realized the gig was up, but he is clinging to power for a little while longer.  Rather, he should transfer power to his newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman until the regularly scheduled Egyptian elections this fall.  This will allow for an orderly transition of power and may just keep the Muslim Brotherhood from turning Egypt into an Islamic state.

If Mubarak is forced out prior to the elections, Egypt will likely end up in the hands of Islamic extremists.  Some speculate that is exactly what Obama wants as he has been playing both sides since the unrest began.
 
Iraq was able to hold successful elections under even more extreme conditions.  The fledgling Iraqi government is still learning how to function in a democratic manner and I suspect Egypt will undergo similar growing pains.

If the worst should happen and Egypt falls into the hands of radical Islam, they will control the Suez Canal and disrupt the world economy.  Gasoline will climb back over $4 a gallon and any hope for an economic recovery here at home will be lost.  Obama will have lost Egypt just as Carter lost Iran.