Preparing For Disaster

Published March 11, 2011 in the Lynchburg Ledger

It has now been two weeks since the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and the resulting tsunami, and we still don’t know the true magnitude of this disaster.  We will likely never really know the exact extent since whole communities have simply disappeared.  We may never know the total death toll.

When a disaster of this magnitude strikes, communications networks are completely destroyed and will take months to restore.  In the meantime, communications will be re-established gradually and we will learn more as time goes on.

The most attention has been focused on the nuclear reactors that were damaged and opponents of nuclear energy lost no time spinning the destruction to their advantage.  In the news business, there is an old saying, “if it bleeds it leads.”  A newsletter I get added “if it radiates it fascinates.”

All six of the reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant are Generation II boiling water reactors designed and built by GE about 40 years ago.  They were designed to withstand a magnitude 8.8 earthquake and they exceeded their specifications.  The primary containment for the nuclear core is a concrete and steel structure around the pressure vessel.  The secondary containment structure of thick poured concrete around the primary containment. An outer structure is designed to keep out weather.

Although the reactors survived the quake, the electric grid which the plant is connected to, did not.  When the grid went down, control rods were automatically inserted into the fuel assemblies stopping the nuclear reactions in the reactors in operation. The backup diesel engines to generate emergency electrical power turned on providing the necessary circulation of water needed to keep the fuel rods from overheating.  About an hour later, the tsunami hit the plant breaching the sea wall and destroying the diesel backup for the electricity to the pumps providing cooling water.

They have been struggling to cool the reactors ever since. 

Some radioactivity has escaped but has been disbursed in the atmosphere so levels detected are well below the dangerous limits.

Japan is located right along the western edge of the Pacific Plate along a subduction zone.  The Pacific Plate is descending below the Eurasian Plate making Japan very prone to not only earthquakes but tsunamis. 

The plate tectonics for North America is completely different.  On our west coast, the Pacific Plate is moving north, sliding along the North American Plate.  Although they are earthquake-prone, the geography is such that major tsunamis are not likely. 

However, along the coast of Alaska, the Pacific Plate is diving under the North American Plate.  Alaska is definitely prone to earthquakes with the possibility of tsunamis, as history shows.

On March 28, 1964, I was operating a Nuclear Detection and Reporting System research station in Manassas, Virginia when the “Good Friday” earthquake occurred in Alaska.  This 9.2 magnitude earthquake and ensuing tsunami took 128 lives.  15 from the earthquake and 113 from the resulting tsunami.  I clearly recorded the event on my seismic monitoring equipment.

On the east coast, the North American Plate meets the Eurasian and African Plates but this fault line is expanding rather than colliding.  The plate boundaries are actually creating undersea land and the plates are moving away from each other.  Consequently, here in the east coast, the chances of a severe earth quake and tsunami are somewhat remote.  Our major risk would be from the fault along the Caribbean Plate and a fault located off the coast of Portugal. 

However, the east coast is much more susceptible to hurricanes and the associated tidal surge, which can be just as destructive as a tsunami.  We saw what the tidal surge from Hurricane Katrina did along the Gulf coast.

I have spent many hours in the air flying up and down the east coast and from Maine to Florida; it is one solid line of coastal development.  If a category 4 or 5 hurricane should strike almost anywhere along the east coast, the result will be very similar to the Japan tsunami.

Here in Lynchburg, we are at about 900 feet above sea level so in no danger from a tsunami or tidal surge. However, weather-related events such as tornados and hurricanes remain our greatest threat.

 

Last week, Virginia conducted a state-wide tornado alert.  Those of us with NOAA weather radios heard our alarm go off.

 

In 1969, Hurricane Camille dropped 27.36 inches of rain in Nelson County resulting in 123 deaths, just five less than the Alaska earthquake.  It took many hours for those outside Nelson County to discover a disaster had even occurred.

So the question is how does one prepare for a possible disaster?  In most cases, if a disaster strikes, you need to be totally self sufficient for at least three days if you survive.  You can go to the ready.gov website for a list of items you will need in your disaster kit. However, I recommend doubling or tripling the amount of water as they did not allow enough water for flushing.

I keep a supply of water, enough food to last a while, and a generator which will keep the refrigerator running, allow me to cook, watch TV, generate heat and operate my computer and ham radio equipment.

In a major disaster, all communications will be out and the only source of emergency communications will be by ham radio as it was during Camille and Katrina.  Locally, we are well prepared.  We have communications equipment permanently installed at Lyncom, the communications centers of Amherst, Bedford and Campbell counties as well as Lynchburg General and Bedford hospitals.

I am an assistant emergency coordinator for Campbell County and locally we train once a week.

Let us hope we don’t have to use our emergency provisions or communications, but if disaster should strike, we are as prepared as we can be.